Tuesday, January 27, 2015   |   Critical Weather, Public Safety

2015 Nor’easter: Latest Insights from the Baron Forecast Model

Severe winter weather is expected to continue tonight on into Tuesday for much of the northeastern United States.

Following the clipper system that moved through the Ohio-Valley/Appalachians last night and up the eastern seaboard today, below is a summary of the latest critical weather intelligence available about this developing storm:

  • Tonight the low will intensify over the warm Gulf Stream waters off the Carolina coast. The central pressure will fall from 1000 mb (where it was Monday afternoon) down to 984 mb on Tuesday afternoon.
  • Also tonight, the center of the low will travel from along the Gulf Stream from the Carolinas and move off the coast of Massachusetts by Tuesday night.
  • With the center of the storm traveling over the Gulf Stream waters, high amounts of moisture will be available to the storm.
  • Intense cyclonic wind flow around the low pressure will push all that moisture back to the eastern U.S., producing severe winter weather conditions with incredible snow accumulations.
  • The 15 km Baron model is predicting snowfall amounts of 12-36” to affect areas from coastal New Jersey through NYC, north through all of Connecticut/Rhode Island/Massachusetts/southern New Hampshire and much of Maine.
  • The 15km Baron model is also forecasting 12-18” of snow for NYC metro and 24-36” of snow for Boston metro, with the heaviest snowfall expected across coastal Massachusetts.
  • Winds, mentioned before, will be very strong for the areas receiving the heavy snowfall too. Winds for all areas in the northeast will come in from the east, then shift to the north, and eventually northwest as the weather system moves northward.
  • Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected tonight through Tuesday night, producing very dangerous blizzard conditions.

Here’s a view from earlier today of the upper east side, Manhattan:

Below is a detailed analysis and forecast of the winter storm.

noreaster1_satellite

The storm off the Carolina coast is intensifying this afternoon. IR (Infrared) satellite shows classic signature of a quickly developing coastal storm.

noreaster1_current_radar

In response to the strengthening low pressure, an area of stratiform precipitation north of the low is both expanding and intensifying from New York to Boston and areas southeast of these locations. This area of precipitation will be moving onshore this evening.

noreaster1_current_winds

Winds along the coast have been increasing through the afternoon, and in general are from the east-northeast at 15-25mph with higher gusts. These winds will continue to increase overnight.

noreaster1_nyc_radar

Local Doppler radar data from Philadelphia shows a band of heavier snow that is moving north through New York City, and has produced several inches of snow this afternoon.

Since Saturday afternoon, the 15km Baron model has been consistent in the track/intensity of this Nor’easter; the morning run of this model continues show the strong low moving up the east coast of the U.S.

The 15km Baron model has also been consistent with overall snow accumulation for the region, with a large area receiving more than 1 foot of snow, the metropolitan area of New York City receiving from 12 to 18 inches of accumulation, and Boston metro expected to receive between 20 and 30 inches of accumulation.

A loop of surface winds through the storm shows intense winds of 25-40 miles per hour with gusts up to 50 miles per hour (the highest winds should occur in coastal areas).

noreaster1_snow_accums

Shown here are snow totals predicted by the 15km Baron model for the storm.

noreaster1_windspeeds

Shown here is the 15km Baron wind forecast for Tuesday around noon.

noreaster1_windspeeds_1

This image is based on the 5km Baron wind field for this storm on Tuesday evening. At this time the storm will be at its strongest and the wind field around the center will look similar to a Category 1 hurricane.