Thursday, December 4, 2014   |   Critical Weather, Public Safety

Super Typhoon Hagupit – December 4 Analysis

hagupit_IR SAT
Above is this morning’s satellite image of Super Typhoon Hagupit, which has sustained winds of 175 mph and is moving to the west toward the central Philippines. On its current path, this typhoon will take a fairly similar path to Super Typhoon Haiyan from last November.

 hagupit_SDR
A Baron-derived data product, Satellite-Derived Reflectivity, which creates a radar-like image using satellite data, shows an impressive inner core and eye. 

hagupit_gfs_precip_rate
Forecast model guidance is coming into better agreement this morning, predicting Hagupit will slowly move west and affect the central Philippines over the weekend. This will bring destructive winds to the islands, along with excessive rainfall amounts due to its slow movement. By Saturday afternoon (US Central Standard Time) the GFS model shows the core of the storm will be approaching Samar Island.

hagupit_gfs_winds
The GFS wind field for the same time period shows the strongest winds affecting Samar island. The storm is expected to continue westward through the northern/central Philippines through the rest of the weekend, fortunately weakening with time.