Thursday, February 26, 2015   |   Critical Weather

Southern Snows – February 26 Post-Storm Analysis

Analysis by Kevin Nugent, Forecast Meteorologist, Baron

A look at radar image this morning shows light snows departing the East Coast of the U.S. as the surface low that was responsible for producing the large swath of heavy snow and heavy rains across all of the southern U.S. yesterday and last night has moved well out to sea.

A look back at the 12z run of the BAMS model snowfall forecast from yesterday (Feb 25th)  as the storm was beginning to intensify over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The BAMS model had been consistent with this swath of heavy snow for several runs even up to 36-48 hours before the start of the event. At that time this model run came out, only a small area of snow was occurring in northeast Texas. That area expanded in coverage/intensity through the day.

bigsnows_2Verification of the BAMS forecast is evident with the snow cover map of the southeastern U.S. this morning. The heaviest band of snow predicted by BAMS model is almost exactly where the highest amount of snow cover is this morning.

snowcover1Expanding out the snow cover map shows that all states, except Florida, have some amount of snow on the ground which is the first time this has happened this winter season.