Thursday, August 27, 2015   |   Critical Weather

Tropical Storm Erika – August 29 Analysis

Analysis by Vince Webb, Customer Service Meteorologist, Baron

Infrared satellite imagery still indicates remnant convection ongoing over and just north of Cuba, moving westward toward southern Florida.


Water vapor imagery indicates less dry air associated with the remnants of Erika with increasing moisture and convection associated with what is now a tropical wave.


While there is a lot less convection associated with the remnants of Erika, Cuba will still be dealing with high wind gusts and long periods of torrential rainfall.


Current wind shear shows exactly why Erika fell apart so quickly overnight. The amount of shear (plus dry air) completely disorganized any substantial signs of an organized tropical cyclone.


The latest BAMS 15KM forecast model brings the remnants of Erika into the Gulf of Mexico, then possibly redeveloping just west of Florida early next week.


Wind shear will be a major factor in determining whether the remnants of Erika can redevelop or not. Forecast wind shear indicates it will be tough to see redevelopment, but it cannot be ruled out.


The Baron Hurricane Index is indicating a more favorable environment for redevelopment by Monday, and especially into Tuesday.